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Old 11-01-2008, 02:49 AM
 
Default Fedora 8 most popular (then 7?)

>
> Oh, we already did for Fedora.
>
> http://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Infrastructure/Metrics
> http://smolts.org/
>
> Rahul

http://smolts.org/static/stats/stats.html -> OS

Hmm, Fedora 8 is the most common followed by F7. (What's the expiration
time again for smolt reports?)

Is that telling us something?

Are there historical snapshots of the smolt database? It would be
interested to see the relative installs of 6,7,8 just before 9 came out.

- Orion

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Old 11-01-2008, 03:47 AM
Les Mikesell
 
Default Fedora 8 most popular (then 7?)

orion@cora.nwra.com wrote:

Oh, we already did for Fedora.

http://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Infrastructure/Metrics
http://smolts.org/

Rahul


http://smolts.org/static/stats/stats.html -> OS

Hmm, Fedora 8 is the most common followed by F7. (What's the expiration
time again for smolt reports?)

Is that telling us something?

Are there historical snapshots of the smolt database? It would be
interested to see the relative installs of 6,7,8 just before 9 came out.



I'm surprised you have any stats for FC6. Aside from not being
installed by default and having no man page:

# smoltSendProfile
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/usr/bin/smoltSendProfile", line 35, in ?
from scan import scan
ImportError: No module named scan

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Old 11-01-2008, 08:35 AM
Steven Moix
 
Default Fedora 8 most popular (then 7?)

On Fri, 2008-10-31 at 21:49 -0600, orion@cora.nwra.com wrote:
> >
> > Oh, we already did for Fedora.
> >
> > http://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Infrastructure/Metrics
> > http://smolts.org/
> >
> > Rahul
>
> http://smolts.org/static/stats/stats.html -> OS
>
> Hmm, Fedora 8 is the most common followed by F7. (What's the expiration
> time again for smolt reports?)
>
> Is that telling us something?
>
> Are there historical snapshots of the smolt database? It would be
> interested to see the relative installs of 6,7,8 just before 9 came out.
>
> - Orion

I don't know exactly how these statistics are are generated, but keep in
mind that:

1) The Smolt service isn't launched by default (if I remember
correctly).
2) A lot of people don't send Smolt profiles during the installation
process. Maybe the don't because they don't have network access during
the installation (think wifi).
3) After an initial submission, their profile never gets updated.

This leads me to think that these statistics are probably biased?

Steven

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Old 11-01-2008, 12:18 PM
Mail Lists
 
Default Fedora 8 most popular (then 7?)

On 11/01/2008 05:35 AM, Steven Moix wrote:

> This leads me to think that these statistics are probably biased?
>

Could be - but that doesn't explain why its biased for F8 .. in fact
would you not expect more people to use smolt over time - as suspicion
fades about big brother etc ...

I suspect some are lagged as always - hence the large F7 base - these
could be server type installs which usually come after the admin has
experience with the desktop and is comfortable with it.

Then I imagine the KDE issue has prevented many from upgrading until
KDE 4.2 is out - too bad smolt cant easily answer the kde vs gnome usage
- its not just an install issue - need to scan for dates inside .kde and
.gnomeX perhaps - maybe ignore anything over X weeks old etc. Maybe
someone can figure out a way.

It would also be interesting to know the laptop install base too -
which while large I doubt would be more than 1/2 the installs. Did F7
and F8 have a way during install to connect to encrypted wireless ? If
not that could not have been a biasing issue either - if it did then yes
it may indeed.


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Old 11-01-2008, 12:39 PM
Rahul Sundaram
 
Default Fedora 8 most popular (then 7?)

Steven Moix wrote:


1) The Smolt service isn't launched by default (if I remember
correctly).


It is. It doesn't send any information automatically however.


3) After an initial submission, their profile never gets updated.


It is. There is a cron job running.

Rahul

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Old 11-01-2008, 02:26 PM
Matthew Miller
 
Default Fedora 8 most popular (then 7?)

On Sat, Nov 01, 2008 at 09:18:35AM -0400, Mail Lists wrote:
> Could be - but that doesn't explain why its biased for F8 .. in fact
> would you not expect more people to use smolt over time - as suspicion
> fades about big brother etc ...

When it was new and exciting, I went out of my way to turn it on. Now I
often forget.

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Senior Systems Architect
Cyberinfrastructure Labs
Computing & Information Technology
Harvard School of Engineering & Applied Sciences

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Old 11-01-2008, 03:42 PM
Les Mikesell
 
Default Fedora 8 most popular (then 7?)

Rahul Sundaram wrote:

Steven Moix wrote:


1) The Smolt service isn't launched by default (if I remember
correctly).


It is. It doesn't send any information automatically however.


3) After an initial submission, their profile never gets updated.


It is. There is a cron job running.


Do you know why such a tiny percentage of video hardware is reported?

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Old 11-01-2008, 04:20 PM
Rahul Sundaram
 
Default Fedora 8 most popular (then 7?)

Les Mikesell wrote:

Rahul Sundaram wrote:

Steven Moix wrote:


1) The Smolt service isn't launched by default (if I remember
correctly).


It is. It doesn't send any information automatically however.


3) After an initial submission, their profile never gets updated.


It is. There is a cron job running.


Do you know why such a tiny percentage of video hardware is reported?


No idea.

Rahul

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Old 11-01-2008, 05:36 PM
"Jeff Spaleta"
 
Default Fedora 8 most popular (then 7?)

On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 7:49 PM, <orion@cora.nwra.com> wrote:
> Is that telling us something?


I think you have to look at the unique IP mirror manager stats as well
to get an idea of whether the smolt opt-in stats are valid as a metric
for overall adoption. Do those stats support the same conclusion you
are trying to draw from the smolt data? Can you reconcile what they
are saying? I wish we had the maps up, they are snapshot of the
MirrorManager logs from the last week, so they give a different
picture versus the total unique ip count since release.

The sampling statistics for smolt's voluntary opt-in mechanism are not
necessarily statistically valid to extrapolate from a population
sampling theory point of view, since smolt users may be an
unrepresentative sample of the wider userbase. Are certain types of
users more likely to use smolt than others? We've no statistically
valid survey of active workloads or usage scenarios. Are people less
interested in optting into smolt now than they were a year ago? We've
no idea. Is smolt usage itself trending downward with each release?

And likewise with the mirror manager unique ips. That is clearly
going to be missing some people who reconfigure their systems to use a
static mirror. Do we have any idea how many people do that? No. Do we
know if people are less interested now in using MirrorManager than a
year ago? No idea. Is MirrorManager usage itself trending downward
with each release?

It's also interesting to look at this from the global map point of
view as a distribution of Fedora installs globally, instead of trying
to get a single number. I think trending the global distribution of
clients matters more in terms of figuring out where to concentrate new
community building efforts.

Let me be very clear... no one in this project has stepped up and made
the case for an adoption increase goal for each release. If you are
looking for a measurable uptick in adoption then you need to step up
and lead a user adoption effort. Looking at the metrics for total
adoption goal numbers and parsing out small relative percentage
changes in adoption from release to release when we've no organized
effort to drive those numbers up is absolutely pointless. Until the
goal of driving user counts up with each release becomes personally
important to someone, someone who will lead an effort, it will not be
important.

Let me be even clearer. I personally do not care about seeing
adoption driven significantly higher for its own sake with each
release. I believe in the concept of the "right" users for
sustainable growth, I do not need to see user numbers driven upward
just for the sake of pointing to it patting ourselves on the back. I
only care about sustainable growth, where users become contributors
and help sustain new efforts. Which is why I care about the map
densities as a tool to see where in the world new community effort can
be incubated.

-jef

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Old 11-01-2008, 06:06 PM
Kevin Kofler
 
Default Fedora 8 most popular (then 7?)

orion@cora.nwra.com wrote:
> Hmm, Fedora 8 is the most common followed by F7. (What's the expiration
> time again for smolt reports?)
>
> Is that telling us something?

As an additional data point (though with a small sample), repo.calcforge.org
still got more requests for the F8 repo than the F9 one in October.

F8 i386: 5566
F9 i386: 3926

F8 i386 non-free: 4996
F9 i386 non-free: 3813

F8 x86_64: 1427
F9 x86_64: 1152

F8 x86_64 non-free: 1423
F9 x86_64 non-free: 1150

(The F7 repo is no longer up, but it had very few hits remaining when I took
it down.)

This is unlike past trends where new versions have been adopted more
quickly, so it looks like Fedora 9 in particular isn't very popular. I
think the major changes (KDE 4, X server 1.5.0, maybe also GCC 4.3 if there
are developers in the audience) are scaring people.

It has to be noted though that these are hits, not unique users, so those
stats probably correspond to very few people. My repository isn't immensely
popular. It might be interesting to see the stats for larger repositories,
such as Livna, or for Fedora updates on the mirrors.

Kevin Kofler

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